Cleveland, Ohio – A stronger spring signal is emerging across the Great Lakes region from Illinois through Ohio, with confidence increasing that both temperatures and precipitation trend above seasonal averages during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 period.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, the corridor from northern Illinois across Indiana and into Ohio carries a 50% to 60% probability of above-normal temperatures in the Week 3-4 outlook. Precipitation probabilities also climb into the 50% to 60% range, signaling a higher likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions across the southern Great Lakes.
The warmer and wetter signal stretches along Interstate 90 from Chicago through northern Indiana into Cleveland, south along Interstate 71 toward Columbus and Cincinnati, and west along Interstate 80 across northern Illinois and northern Ohio. This broader atmospheric setup favors fewer prolonged Arctic intrusions compared to typical late-February standards.
The elevated precipitation outlook suggests a more active storm track across the Midwest and lower Great Lakes basin. While long-range guidance does not specify exact storm timing or precipitation type, it does indicate a greater probability of systems moving through the region during the two-week window.
Major population centers including Chicago, Gary, Fort Wayne, Toledo, Detroit and Cleveland fall within both the warmer and wetter zones. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific day-to-day conditions.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March timeframe approaches and shorter-range guidance provides greater clarity on individual systems.
