Orlando, FL – Florida’s winter may look very different from much of the U.S. in 2025-26. While northern states brace for snowier conditions, the preliminary winter outlook for Florida points to warmer-than-normal temperatures and variable rainfall between December and February.
According to the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center, weak La Niña conditions are expected to form this fall, likely shifting to a neutral pattern by early 2026. Historically, La Niña winters bring warmer, drier weather to much of the Southeast — but forecasters caution that this year’s setup could feature short bursts of unsettled weather tied to shifting storm tracks.
Meteorologists stress that this forecast is preliminary and influenced by short-term climate drivers. Patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can redirect storm systems across the Gulf and Atlantic, creating short-lived cool snaps or increasing rainfall for parts of the state.
Still, the early indicators lean toward above-normal temperatures statewide. Cities like Miami, Orlando, and Tampa may see fewer cool fronts compared to average winters, while northern areas including Jacksonville and Tallahassee may still experience occasional cold spells. Rainfall outlooks remain mixed, with some regions potentially trending drier while others see increased precipitation tied to Gulf storm activity.
Past winters with similar conditions highlight the variability. Some La Niña years produced extended dry spells that heightened wildfire concerns, while others delivered periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms across central and southern Florida. The mix depends largely on how storm tracks interact with warm Gulf waters.
While Floridians won’t need to prepare for blizzards, forecasters say there are seasonal impacts to consider. Farmers could face challenges with alternating dry and wet spells, while tourism may benefit from extended stretches of warm weather. Residents should also be aware that hurricane season runs through November 30, meaning early winter could overlap with lingering tropical threats.
