Jacksonville, Florida – Summer heat is expected to intensify across Florida between July 23 and July 27, with above-normal temperatures combining with abundant Gulf and Atlantic moisture to create a typical late-July pattern of hot, humid days followed by frequent afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The combination of elevated heat and daily rain chances could produce localized flooding, dangerous lightning and reduced visibility during heavier downpours.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, in its 6-10 Day Outlook issued July 17, Florida is favored to experience above-normal temperatures during the July 23-27 period. The state is also included in an area favoring above-normal precipitation, signaling an increased likelihood of more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity than is typical for late July.
In Jacksonville, temperatures are expected to climb above seasonal averages, with high humidity pushing heat index values even higher during the afternoon. Sea breeze boundaries developing along both coasts are likely to trigger scattered to numerous thunderstorms each day, especially from mid-afternoon into the early evening. While not every location will receive rain, storms that develop could produce torrential downpours, gusty winds and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.
Across South Florida, Miami is expected to experience a similar weather pattern. Above-average temperatures and tropical moisture will fuel daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with the heaviest rainfall capable of overwhelming poor drainage areas in a short period of time. Motorists should be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions during the afternoon commute, while beachgoers should remain alert for lightning and quickly changing weather.
The hotter and wetter pattern is expected to extend statewide, including Tampa, Orlando, St. Petersburg, Tallahassee, Fort Myers, Pensacola, Sarasota and the Florida Keys. Interior portions of the peninsula could experience the highest afternoon heat indices before storms develop, while coastal communities will see sea breezes play a major role in storm formation each day.
Although the Climate Prediction Center outlook does not pinpoint the exact timing or location of daily thunderstorms, confidence continues to increase that Florida will remain locked in a warmer-than-normal and wetter-than-normal pattern through July 27. Residents should plan for periods of intense heat followed by scattered afternoon storms, and continue monitoring National Weather Service forecasts for any flood advisories or severe thunderstorm alerts that may be issued.
