Tallahassee, FL – Florida travelers may face a wetter-than-normal stretch during the Thanksgiving holiday window, as new long-range federal outlooks show a 33–40% probability of above-normal precipitation across most of the state from November 23 through November 29.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 8–14 Day Outlook released Saturday, Florida sits on the southern edge of a broad moisture corridor extending from the Gulf Coast through the Southeast. Temperatures will remain warm statewide, ensuring rain as the dominant weather type, though a few of the northernmost Panhandle communities could briefly flirt with colder air at times.
North Florida and the Panhandle—including Pensacola, Destin, Panama City, Tallahassee, and Lake City—are positioned for the most frequent rounds of rain. While temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, the far northern tier of the Panhandle may sit close enough to cooler air to allow for a very brief rain–mix scenario in elevated or inland areas if precipitation arrives during the overnight hours. This remains a low-probability outcome.
Central Florida—including Gainesville, Orlando, Daytona Beach, and Tampa Bay—should see several windows of moderate rain, with the potential for heavier downpours at times. Travel during peak holiday periods along I-4, I-75, and Florida’s Turnpike may slow due to reduced visibility and wet roadways.
South Florida—including Fort Myers, Naples, Miami, and the Keys—also remains in the wetter-than-normal pattern. While no cold air is expected this far south, periods of steady rainfall may still lead to pockets of ponding on roadways and slower conditions on I-95, US-41, and US-1.
Air travel delays are possible at major Florida airports—from Tampa and Orlando to Jacksonville and Miami—if widespread rain or low ceiling conditions develop during heavy travel periods.
Forecasters expect clearer timing details early next week as short-range models begin resolving individual systems.
