Tallahassee, Florida – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring below-normal precipitation across Florida, reinforcing typically drier winter-season conditions statewide.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Florida is placed in a below-normal precipitation category for February 2026. This designation indicates a higher probability that total rainfall for the month will fall below long-term February averages.
The dry signal spans the entire state, from the Panhandle through central Florida and into South Florida. While individual rain events are still possible, the outlook suggests fewer or weaker storm systems reaching the region compared to a typical February.
CPC monthly outlooks do not forecast day-to-day weather or specific rainfall totals. Instead, they assess how overall monthly conditions are likely to compare to historical norms. For Florida, below-normal precipitation often means extended dry stretches between cold fronts and limited widespread rain events.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate above-normal temperatures across much of Florida. This warmer pattern, combined with reduced rainfall probabilities, may increase short-term drought concerns and elevate wildfire risk, particularly in inland and northern portions of the state.
Florida’s winter dry season typically peaks between January and March. The February 2026 outlook suggests that pattern may be more pronounced this year, with limited opportunities for soaking rainfall.
Surrounding portions of the Southeast also show areas of reduced precipitation, supporting confidence in a broader regional dry pattern rather than a localized signal.
Residents, agricultural interests, water managers, and wildfire agencies across Florida are encouraged to monitor updated outlooks as February approaches, especially if dry conditions persist into early spring.
