Florida Fall Weather Update: Storm Chances Peak Saturday in Tampa Bay Before Calmer Conditions Arrive by October 1

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TAMPA, Fla. – Drivers across Tampa Bay should watch for slick roads Saturday as scattered storms move through, raising hazards on I-275 and local routes. The unsettled pattern will ease Sunday, setting up a clearer stretch into the opening days of October.

According to the National Weather Service, Saturday brings a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, with highs near 90. Calm morning conditions will give way to gustier winds and pockets of heavy rain by the afternoon. Sunday looks drier but still carries a 30% rain chance, mostly in the afternoon.

Localized flooding could slow traffic in low-lying areas, especially near downtown Tampa and St. Petersburg. Motorists should allow extra travel time, avoid standing water, and keep headlights on during storms. Outdoor events Saturday may face delays, but Sunday afternoon appears safer for plans across Hillsborough and Pinellas counties.

The good news: early October starts on a sunnier note. Monday through Wednesday feature mostly dry skies and highs around 90, with only isolated showers. Winds will shift north, bringing slightly cooler mornings in the mid-70s. While no cold front is yet in sight, forecasters hint that early October could bring Florida’s first taste of fall-like breezes.

Expect clearer skies for weekday commutes and fewer disruptions at Tampa International Airport starting Monday. More advisories could be issued if storm coverage increases this weekend.

Five Day Forecast for Tampa, Florida:

  • Saturday: Scattered storms, high near 90. Rain chance 50%.
  • Sunday: Sunny with isolated storms, high near 92. Rain chance 30%.
  • Monday: Mostly sunny, high near 91. Rain chance 20%.
  • Tuesday: Sunny with a stray storm, high near 89. Rain chance 20%.
  • Wednesday (Oct. 1): Mostly sunny, high near 90. Rain chance 20%.

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