Fargo, ND – A spring-like shift in the weather pattern is expected to impact both North Dakota and South Dakota during the February 11–17 period, bringing above-normal temperatures with potential regional implications.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day outlook strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Northern Plains, including all of North Dakota and South Dakota. This transition follows recent stretches of extreme winter cold and signals a temporary break from mid-winter conditions.
In eastern North Dakota, including Fargo and Grand Forks, average mid-February high temperatures typically range from the low to mid-teens. Forecast guidance suggests daytime highs may frequently climb into the 20s and 30s during this period. Overnight lows are also expected to moderate, reducing the frequency of extreme subzero temperatures.
Across South Dakota, including Sioux Falls, Brookings, and Mitchell, temperatures are forecast to trend several degrees above normal, with highs often reaching the 30s and low 40s. Western South Dakota, including Rapid City and the Black Hills region, may also see milder daytime temperatures, though colder nights will persist at higher elevations.
As temperatures rise, existing snowpack across both states may begin to thaw. Snowmelt combined with any rainfall could increase runoff into rivers, streams, and drainage systems. Transportation corridors such as I-29, I-94, I-90, U.S. Highway 83, and U.S. Highway 12 are particularly sensitive to ponding and localized flooding during rapid warmups.
The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook indicates near to above-normal precipitation potential during this timeframe. While no specific storm systems are identified, rainfall combined with melting snow could contribute to rises on rivers including the Red River of the North, James, Missouri, Cheyenne, and Big Sioux.
Warming temperatures may also weaken ice on lakes and rivers, creating hazardous conditions for recreation and travel. The National Weather Service advises residents to avoid frozen waterways as ice conditions deteriorate during thaw periods.
Commuters, students, and outdoor workers may notice more spring-like afternoons, but officials caution that winter hazards can persist overnight and in shaded or rural areas.
Residents across the Dakotas are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts, river statements, and local advisories as confidence increases closer to the February 11–17 timeframe.
