Philadelphia, Pennsylvania – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring near-normal winter precipitation across eastern Pennsylvania, with equal chances of rain and snow rather than a dominant snowfall pattern.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), eastern Pennsylvania is currently placed in an “equal chances” category for February precipitation type. This designation indicates no statistically significant signal favoring either above-normal snowfall or rain-dominant systems compared to long-term February averages.
Equal chances outlooks reflect uncertainty in storm tracks and temperature patterns. For eastern Pennsylvania, this suggests February 2026 could feature a wide range of winter weather outcomes, including rain events, snowstorms, and periods of mixed precipitation depending on storm timing and cold-air availability.
Interior and higher-elevation areas, such as parts of the Poconos and Lehigh Valley, may still see accumulating snow during colder systems. Lower-elevation and southeastern areas, including the Philadelphia metro region, are more likely to experience rain or rain-snow mix during milder periods, particularly with coastal storm tracks.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate near-normal conditions across the Mid-Atlantic. This temperature profile supports alternating cold and mild periods, increasing the likelihood of shifting precipitation types throughout the month.
Neighboring regions including New Jersey, New York City, Delaware, and central Pennsylvania also show neutral precipitation signals, reinforcing uncertainty in how consistently winter weather patterns will favor snow versus rain in the region.
Commuters, students, and winter travelers across eastern Pennsylvania are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when shorter-range outlooks will better resolve storm timing and precipitation type.
