Knoxville, Tennessee – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring near-normal winter precipitation across eastern Tennessee, with equal chances of rain and snow rather than a dominant winter weather signal.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), eastern Tennessee is currently placed in an “equal chances” category for February precipitation type. This designation indicates no statistically significant signal favoring either above-normal snowfall or rain-dominant systems compared to long-term February averages.
Equal chances outlooks reflect uncertainty in storm tracks and temperature patterns. For eastern Tennessee, this suggests February 2026 could feature a mix of rain, snow, and mixed-precipitation events depending on timing, elevation, and the availability of cold air.
Higher elevations of the Smoky Mountains and along the Cumberland Plateau may still see accumulating snow during colder systems, while valley locations—including Knoxville, the Tri-Cities, and surrounding communities—are more likely to experience rain or rain-snow mix during marginal temperature events.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate near-normal conditions across the southern Appalachians. This temperature profile supports alternating cold and mild periods, increasing the likelihood that small temperature shifts will determine precipitation type during individual winter systems.
Surrounding regions including western North Carolina, southwest Virginia, and eastern Kentucky also show neutral precipitation signals, reinforcing uncertainty in how consistently winter weather patterns will favor snow versus rain across the central and southern Appalachians.
Commuters, students, mountain travelers, and freight operators across eastern Tennessee are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when shorter-range outlooks will provide clearer insight into storm timing and precipitation type.
