Duluth, Minnesota – Spring flood risk remains near normal, with one river showing elevated potential.
According to the National Weather Service Duluth office, the first Spring Flood Outlook of the season indicates flood risk is generally around to below normal across much of the Northland. The update was issued Thursday, Feb. 12, at 4:07 p.m.
The exception is along the South Shore of Lake Superior, where spring flood risk is considered around to slightly above normal. The Tyler Forks River near Mellen, Wisconsin, shows a 60% chance of exceeding minor flood stage — the highest probability listed in the outlook.
Most other forecast points across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin show less than a 5% chance of reaching minor flood stage. The Mississippi River at Fort Ripley carries a 5% chance, while locations including the St. Louis River at Scanlon, the Knife River near Two Harbors, and the St. Croix River at Danbury remain below 5%.
Meteorologists say one of the biggest variables this spring is frost depth. Deep frost could lead to faster runoff if rapid snowmelt or heavy rain occurs before the ground fully thaws.
Snow water equivalent values across parts of the region range widely, with some areas reporting above-normal snowpack. Values around 50% typically indicate near-normal conditions, while greater than 90% signals snowpack in the top historical range.
Communities along Interstate 35, U.S. Highway 2, U.S. 53, and Minnesota Highway 61 near rivers may want to monitor future updates as temperatures warm.
The next flood outlook update is scheduled for Friday, Feb. 27.
