Dodge City, Kansas — Long-range forecast guidance is signaling a growing risk for much colder Arctic air moving into southwest Kansas toward the end of January.
According to the National Weather Service in Dodge City, ensemble and extended-range models indicate a shift in the jet stream pattern developing after several cold fronts move through the region. These fronts are expected to pass between Friday and Wednesday, Jan. 21, each bringing colder air but limited precipitation.
Forecasters say the stronger signal arrives after the third cold front, when large-scale pattern changes could allow much colder Arctic air to push farther west and southwest, potentially reaching southwest Kansas. While exact temperatures are not yet defined, this setup raises concern for hazardous cold conditions if the pattern verifies.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 8–14 Day Hazards Outlook (experimental) is now highlighting a “slight risk” of hazardous cold temperatures near southwest Kansas for the period Jan. 22–28. This does not guarantee an extreme cold event, but it increases confidence that below-normal and potentially dangerous cold is possible.
At this range, details such as exact low temperatures, duration of cold, and wind chill values remain uncertain. However, the National Weather Service emphasized that confidence in a colder pattern is increasing, even if impacts are still being refined.
Residents are encouraged to monitor forecast updates over the coming days, especially those with livestock, travel plans, or outdoor work late this month.
This outlook is especially relevant for ranchers, energy customers, and early-morning commuters, as prolonged cold could stress infrastructure and increase heating demand.
