Detroit, MI – A spring-like shift in the weather pattern is expected to impact Michigan during the February 11–17 period, bringing above-normal temperatures with potential statewide implications.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day outlook strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Great Lakes region, including all of Michigan. This transition follows recent winter cold and signals a temporary break from persistent mid-winter conditions.
In Southeast Michigan, including Detroit, Ann Arbor, and the I-94 corridor, average mid-February high temperatures typically range from the low to mid-30s. Forecast guidance suggests daytime highs may frequently climb into the 40s during this period. Similar warming is expected across central Lower Michigan, including Lansing and Flint, with fewer overnight temperatures falling well below freezing.
Across western Michigan, including Grand Rapids and Muskegon, temperatures are forecast to run several degrees above normal. Northern Lower Michigan and parts of the Upper Peninsula are also expected to trend milder, though colder nights may persist in interior and higher-elevation areas.
As temperatures rise, existing snowpack across northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula may begin to thaw. Snowmelt combined with rainfall could increase runoff into rivers, streams, and drainage systems. Transportation corridors such as I-94, I-96, I-75, I-69, and US-131 are particularly sensitive to ponding and localized flooding during rapid warmups.
The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook indicates near to above-normal precipitation potential during this timeframe. While no specific storm systems are identified, rainfall combined with melting snow could lead to rises on rivers including the Grand, Saginaw, Kalamazoo, and Muskegon.
Warming temperatures may also weaken ice on inland lakes and rivers, creating hazardous conditions for recreation. The National Weather Service advises residents to avoid frozen waterways as ice conditions deteriorate during thaw periods.
Commuters, students, and outdoor workers may notice more spring-like afternoons, but officials caution that winter hazards can persist overnight and in shaded areas.
Residents across Michigan are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts, river statements, and local advisories as confidence increases closer to the February 11–17 timeframe.
