Wilmington, North Carolina – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring below-normal precipitation across coastal areas of North and South Carolina, increasing the likelihood of a drier-than-average winter month along the Atlantic coastline.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), coastal portions of the Carolinas are placed in a below-normal precipitation category for February. This designation indicates a higher probability that total rainfall will fall below long-term February averages.
The drier signal extends from coastal North Carolina through the Grand Strand and Lowcountry of South Carolina. While passing cold fronts and coastal systems may still produce brief rainfall, the outlook suggests fewer widespread or soaking rain events than typically observed during February.
CPC monthly outlooks do not provide storm-specific forecasts or rainfall totals. Instead, they assess how overall monthly precipitation may compare to historical norms. For coastal Carolina communities, below-normal precipitation often means longer dry intervals between systems and limited inland penetration of Gulf or Atlantic moisture.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate above-normal temperatures across much of the Southeast, including coastal areas of the Carolinas. Warmer conditions combined with reduced rainfall could contribute to dry soils, elevated brush fire concerns, and increased irrigation needs in agricultural zones.
February typically falls within a transitional period for the Carolinas, where winter systems gradually weaken ahead of spring. The February 2026 outlook suggests this transition may lean drier than usual along the coast.
Residents, coastal communities, agricultural operators, and water managers across the Carolinas are encouraged to monitor updated outlooks as February approaches, particularly if dry conditions persist into early spring.
