Harrisburg, Pennsylvania – New long-range federal climate guidance indicates February 2026 could bring above-normal snowfall across central and western Pennsylvania, increasing the likelihood of winter travel disruptions.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), central and western portions of Pennsylvania fall within a broad corridor of elevated snowfall probabilities stretching from the Midwest into the Northeast. The outlook suggests a higher chance of prolonged or more frequent snow activity compared to long-term February averages.
Central Pennsylvania, including higher-elevation areas of the Allegheny Plateau and surrounding ridgelines, is highlighted for increased snow potential during repeated winter systems. Western Pennsylvania, including areas influenced by Lake Erie, may also see enhanced snowfall from lake-effect events layered into larger storm patterns.
CPC monthly outlooks do not provide specific storm timing or snowfall totals. Instead, they measure the probability of snowfall exceeding normal levels over the course of the month. For February 2026, the guidance suggests cumulative snowfall or the number of snow events in central and western Pennsylvania could exceed typical seasonal norms.
Temperature outlooks show near-normal conditions across most of Pennsylvania during February. This temperature profile favors snow rather than rain or mixed precipitation for many systems, especially overnight and inland events. Forecasters note that near-average temperatures combined with increased storm frequency often support longer-lasting snow cover and repeated plowing needs.
Surrounding states including New York, Ohio, West Virginia, and Michigan are also included in the above-normal snowfall zone, reinforcing confidence in a regional winter pattern rather than isolated storms.
Commuters, students, and freight operators across central and western Pennsylvania are encouraged to monitor updated outlooks as February approaches, when confidence and detail will increase closer to the season.
