Des Moines, Iowa – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring near-normal winter precipitation across central and western Iowa, with equal chances of rain and snow rather than a dominant winter weather signal.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), central and western Iowa are currently placed in an “equal chances” category for February precipitation type. This classification indicates no statistically significant signal favoring either above-normal snowfall or reduced winter precipitation compared to long-term February averages.
Equal chances outlooks reflect uncertainty in storm tracks and temperature patterns. For central and western Iowa, this suggests February 2026 could feature a mix of snow events, lighter systems, and occasional mixed-precipitation periods depending on timing and cold-air availability.
Stronger cold intrusions may still support accumulating snow, particularly with Plains-based storm systems. However, milder intervals could lead to rain or mixed precipitation, especially in western portions of the state where temperature variability tends to be higher.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate near-normal conditions across much of Iowa. This temperature profile supports fluctuating winter conditions rather than prolonged extreme cold, increasing uncertainty in precipitation type from system to system.
Eastern Iowa and parts of the Upper Midwest show stronger snowfall signals, while areas farther west trend toward mixed precipitation, reinforcing the transition-zone nature of central and western Iowa this winter.
Commuters, agricultural operators, students, and freight carriers across central and western Iowa are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when shorter-range outlooks will better clarify storm timing, precipitation type, and travel impacts.
