Kingston, NY – The Catskills may enter a colder and more active pattern during the Thanksgiving travel window, as new long-range federal outlooks show a 33–40% chance of above-normal precipitation across the region from November 23 through November 29. With colder air sliding into upstate New York, the Catskills hold a notable early-season snow risk, particularly across higher elevations.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 8–14 Day Outlook, the Catskills sit in a corridor where incoming disturbances may overlap with marginal but increasingly favorable cold air. This setup supports accumulating wet snow in the mountains and foothills, while valleys may see rain changing to a mix—especially during the overnight hours.
The high-elevation zones, including Hunter, Windham, Phoenicia, Fleischmanns, Arkville, Livingston Manor, and the western slopes stretching toward Delhi and Stamford, have the strongest chance of snow. These areas often cool fastest at night and may see several periods of wet, slushy accumulation depending on storm timing.
In lower valleys, including Kingston, Monticello, Liberty, Catskill, and towns across Ulster and Sullivan counties, precipitation likely begins as cold rain. However, temperatures may dip close enough to freezing at night to introduce a brief rain–snow mix, especially if a system tracks south of the region.
The Route 28 and Route 23 corridors, along with mountain passes near Slide Mountain, Belleayre, and the western highlands, could see slippery conditions when snow develops or temperatures briefly drop below freezing.
Behind each system, northwest flow may also trigger lake-enhanced snow showers drifting into the western Catskills, adding localized slick spots at higher elevations.
Thanksgiving week brings some of the heaviest travel across I-87 (the Thruway), NY-28, NY-23, and mountain routes connecting the Hudson Valley with central New York. Even light snow or slush may slow travel during peak departure and return periods.
Forecasters expect sharper system timing late this weekend as short-range models begin resolving individual storm tracks.
