SAN FRANCISCO, Calif. – Forecasters are tracking a potential shift in the fall weather pattern next week, as a developing Pacific trough could steer much-needed rain toward Northern and Central California. Confidence remains low, but early model trends suggest the first significant rainfall opportunity in several weeks for the Bay Area.
According to the National Weather Service in San Francisco/Monterey, a deep upper-level trough forming in the northeastern Pacific may approach the coast between Tuesday and Friday of next week. Computer models currently disagree on the storm’s strength and track — with some runs producing moderate rainfall totals of up to a half inch or more, while others show little measurable precipitation.
If the wetter scenario develops, residents from Santa Rosa to Monterey could see wet roads, minor ponding on city streets, and briefly elevated creek levels. The drier “bust” outcome would keep the region largely dry and breezy, maintaining mild fall conditions.
Forecasters emphasize that confidence in the system’s evolution is still low but improving daily. Updates later this week should clarify whether rain will indeed reach the coast or stay offshore.
Residents are encouraged to monitor NWS updates and prepare for potential wet weather midweek — including clearing gutters and securing outdoor items ahead of gusty onshore winds.
