Little Rock, Arkansas – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring near-normal winter precipitation across Arkansas, with equal chances of rain and snow rather than a dominant winter weather signal.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Arkansas is currently placed in an “equal chances” category for February precipitation type. This designation indicates no statistically significant signal favoring either above-normal snowfall or rain-dominant systems compared to long-term February averages.
Equal chances outlooks reflect uncertainty in storm tracks and temperature patterns. For Arkansas, this suggests February 2026 could feature a variable mix of rain, occasional snow, and brief wintry precipitation depending on storm timing and the strength of cold-air intrusions.
Northern and higher-elevation portions of the state may still see accumulating snow during stronger Arctic air outbreaks, while central and southern Arkansas are more likely to experience rain or rain-snow mix during marginal temperature setups. Small shifts in storm track or air mass strength will play a major role in determining precipitation type.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate near-normal conditions across the Mid-South. This temperature profile supports alternating cold and mild periods, increasing the likelihood of mixed winter precipitation rather than sustained winter weather.
Surrounding states including Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas also show neutral precipitation signals, reinforcing uncertainty in how consistently winter patterns will favor snow versus rain across the region.
Commuters, freight operators, agricultural workers, and residents across Arkansas are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when shorter-range outlooks will better clarify storm timing, cold-air strength, and precipitation type.
