Little Rock, Arkansas – A pronounced mid-February warm-up is expected across Arkansas, with temperatures forecast to run 10 to 20 degrees above normal from Feb. 16–20, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day temperature outlook shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures statewide, including Little Rock and Fayetteville. Probabilities for warmer-than-average conditions exceed 60 percent, indicating a high-confidence shift away from typical winter conditions.
Under normal circumstances, mid-February highs across Arkansas generally range from the upper 40s to mid-50s. During this warm stretch, daytime temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 50s, 60s, and lower 70s, particularly across central, southern, and eastern portions of the state. Northern Arkansas is also expected to see a noticeable rise compared to seasonal averages.
This warming trend is part of a broader weather pattern affecting much of the central and eastern United States. Across the Midwest and Mississippi Valley, temperatures are forecast to surge into the 50s and 60s, while parts of the South experience an even stronger springlike signal, often referred to by forecasters as a “spring tease.”
Precipitation outlooks indicate near to slightly above-normal rainfall potential across Arkansas during this timeframe. Combined with rising temperatures, this could lead to localized flooding concerns, especially in low-lying areas, along rivers and creeks, and in regions with poor drainage.
Forecasters emphasize that this outlook reflects large-scale climate probabilities, not a day-to-day forecast. Cooler weather can still return later in February, and residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts for updated details.
For commuters, students, and outdoor workers, the warmer stretch may provide temporary relief from winter chill, though changing conditions remain possible.
