Little Rock, AR – From the Ozarks to the Delta, Arkansans are bracing for what could be an unpredictable winter. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) preliminary Winter 2025–26 outlook shows equal chances of above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures across Arkansas, leaving the door open for snow, ice, or milder conditions.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 update, a weak La Niña is expected this fall before transitioning to ENSO-neutral during winter. That pattern often produces volatile weather in the South, where slight shifts in storm tracks can determine whether Arkansas sees snow, ice, or cold rain.
“Predictability is very low right now,” forecasters explained, adding that short-term patterns like the Arctic Oscillation could drive outbreaks of cold air into the region—setting the stage for disruptive winter storms.
What It Means for Arkansas
- Northwest Arkansas (Fayetteville, Bentonville, Ozark Plateau): More likely to lock in colder air, increasing the risk of snow or mixed precipitation when storm systems pass.
- Central Arkansas (Little Rock, Conway, Hot Springs): A classic battleground zone where ice storms are often as big a threat as snow, especially when Gulf moisture surges north.
- Southern & Eastern Arkansas (Pine Bluff, Jonesboro, Delta counties): More prone to cold rain events, though history shows that sudden Arctic pushes can still trigger significant snow or ice storms.
Past ENSO-neutral winters have delivered some of Arkansas’s most damaging ice storms, proving that even without a strong climate signal, winter weather threats remain serious.
Preparing for the Season
The bottom line: Arkansas faces a 50/50 outlook heading into Winter 2025–26. While there’s no clear sign of a record-breaking snow season, the risk of ice storms, slick travel, and power outages remains significant.
Meteorologists caution that a warmer-than-average fall may flip quickly to winter conditions by December, with storms catching communities off guard.
The official NOAA winter outlook will be released October 16, which may provide sharper guidance for Arkansas residents.
