Arkansas & Mississippi Weather: Warm November or Winter Surprise Before Thanksgiving?

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Little Rock, AR – The Mississippi Valley is looking at a quiet start to November, with warmer days and little precipitation expected through much of the month. But forecasters say Thanksgiving week could finally bring a taste of winter to parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, and western Tennessee.

According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast released October 24, 2025, temperatures across the region are expected to run above normal, with below-average rainfall. That means dry travel conditions and little risk for snow early on—but it also hints at an unstable setup heading toward the end of the month.

Meteorologists note that as the jet stream begins dipping south near Thanksgiving, colder air could briefly meet Gulf moisture, sparking a chilly rain—or even a rare flurry—in northern sections of the valley. While no major winter systems are on the horizon, the last week of November could feel noticeably cooler.

For now, it’s smooth sailing across the Mississippi Valley—but as every local knows, winter weather in the South can change fast once Thanksgiving arrives.

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