Little Rock, AR – Repeated rounds of heavy rain could push rivers toward flood stage along the Arkansas–Louisiana corridor beginning March 7, raising concerns for low-lying communities before St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlook issued February 27 and valid March 7-13, a broad swath of 60-70% probability for above normal precipitation stretches across the South-Central U.S. A high risk, greater than 60%, for heavy precipitation is centered on the Lower Mississippi Valley from March 7-10, placing southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana in a prime flood corridor.
Forecast guidance indicates weekly rainfall totals could exceed 3 inches across parts of the region, with localized amounts approaching 4 inches. Three-day totals in the highest-risk zone could surpass 2 inches, increasing the likelihood of flash flooding and rapid rises along area waterways.
In Arkansas, Little Rock, Pine Bluff and communities along the Arkansas and Ouachita rivers could see elevated water levels. In Louisiana, Shreveport, Monroe and parishes near the Red and Ouachita rivers may face growing flood concerns as repeated rain bands move through.
Major routes including I-30, I-20 and U.S. 165 could experience water-covered stretches during heavier downpours. Saturated soils may intensify runoff, especially in low-lying Delta areas and rural parishes.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook for March 7-13 shows a 70-80% probability of above normal temperatures across much of the region, which could help sustain the active pattern.
Flooding could remain possible through March 13, with additional river advisories and warnings likely if rainfall totals trend toward the higher end of projections.
