Phoenix, AZ – Arizona is expected to experience a warmer and drier winter than normal in 2025-26, according to the preliminary outlook from the National Weather Service (NWS). While the state won’t see the snowier conditions forecast for northern states, higher elevations in northern and eastern Arizona could still experience bursts of significant snowfall.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center reports that weak La Niña conditions are expected to develop this fall before shifting toward a neutral phase mid-winter. Historically, La Niña winters often steer storms away from the Southwest, leading to warmer temperatures and below-average precipitation for much of Arizona.
Meteorologists caution that the forecast is preliminary and carries uncertainty. Short-term climate drivers such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can redirect moisture into the region, occasionally producing impactful storms. These patterns can flip conditions quickly, turning a mild stretch into a snowy weekend in higher elevations.
The early signal suggests:
- Above-normal temperatures statewide. Cities such as Phoenix, Tucson, and Yuma will likely trend warmer, with fewer cold snaps compared to average winters.
- Below-average precipitation overall. Central and southern Arizona are expected to be drier, while northern mountains may still see snow events tied to Pacific storm systems.
- Localized heavy snow possible in high country. Flagstaff, the Mogollon Rim, and White Mountains may see several significant snowfalls, even in a warmer-than-average season.
Historical data supports this range of outcomes. Some past La Niña winters left the state extremely dry, straining water supplies, while others brought a handful of strong storms that delivered heavy snow to the high country and flooding rains to valleys.
Travel challenges remain possible, particularly in mountain passes along I-40, I-17, and U.S. 60. Even one strong storm can close highways near Flagstaff or create hazardous conditions across northern Arizona. In southern areas, dry winters increase wildfire concerns heading into spring.
The official NWS winter forecast will be released October 16, but emergency officials urge residents to prepare early. Mountain travelers should keep emergency supplies in vehicles, while ranchers and farmers are advised to plan for the possibility of extended dry periods.
