FLAGSTAFF, Ariz. – NOAA’s Winter 2025–2026 outlook, released Thursday, Oct. 16, shows a split winter ahead for Arizona — mild and mostly dry across the southern deserts, but colder and snowier than average across the high country. The Climate Prediction Center’s data points to below-normal precipitation in southern Arizona and above-normal snowfall for the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and Four Corners region under a persistent La Niña setup.
According to the National Weather Service in Flagstaff, “We expect an active pattern in northern Arizona this winter, with frequent snow events and periodic Arctic fronts into March.” Flagstaff, Show Low, and Payson could see multiple 6- to 12-inch snowfalls between mid-January and late February, while lower elevations like Prescott and Sedona may see occasional wintry mixes.
Phoenix, Tucson, and Yuma, however, are forecast to stay warmer and drier than average — with plenty of sunshine, mild afternoons, and cool desert nights. “Storms will mostly track north, leaving southern Arizona on the dry side,” forecasters added.
Travel impacts will be most frequent along I-17 and I-40, where snow and ice may create hazardous conditions during active storm cycles. Forecasters urge mountain travelers to carry chains, emergency kits, and extra fuel.
For Arizona, Winter 2026 looks like a classic La Niña pattern — mild for the desert valleys but brisk, snowy, and slow to thaw across the northern highlands.
