Phoenix, Arizona – Spring 2026 could accelerate into summerlike heat across Arizona, with one of the strongest warm signals in the nation combining with below normal precipitation through May.
According to NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlook released February 19, Arizona carries a 60 to 70 percent probability of above normal temperatures during March-April-May 2026. At the same time, below normal precipitation is favored statewide, signaling fewer widespread storm systems and limited late-season moisture.
In Phoenix and the Lower Desert, that setup may push afternoon highs into the upper 80s and 90s earlier than average, with the first 100-degree readings possible before the end of spring. Reduced rainfall could also dry out fuels quickly, elevating wildfire concerns around the Valley’s foothills and desert preserves.
Tucson and southern Arizona are likely to see extended dry stretches punctuated by windy afternoons. Low humidity combined with strengthening spring winds may heighten fire danger across Pima and Cochise counties.
Northern Arizona, including Flagstaff, may experience fewer late-season snow opportunities. Warmer daytime highs could accelerate snowmelt, limiting additional gains to mountain snowpack heading into summer water planning.
Along the Colorado River Valley near Yuma, above normal warmth paired with minimal rainfall may drive early irrigation demand.
Overall, Arizona appears poised for a hotter and drier-than-average spring. Residents should prepare for early heat waves, rising wildfire risk and limited precipitation through May as the state transitions toward summer.
