Phoenix, Ariz. – A warmer-than-normal start to March is expected across Arizona, with mild desert air favoring rain in lower elevations and periods of snow confined mainly to higher terrain from Sunday, March 1, through Thursday, March 5.
According to NOAA’s 6-10 day outlook issued Monday, Arizona is favored to see above-normal temperatures during the March 1-5 stretch, while precipitation trends near to slightly above seasonal averages across parts of the Southwest. That setup supports a rain-dominant pattern in the deserts and snow potential in the high country.
In the Phoenix metro area, including Mesa and Scottsdale, passing rain showers are the most likely outcome as disturbances move across the region. Periods of steadier rainfall could create slick stretches along Interstate 10 and Loop 101, particularly during peak travel times.
Farther south, including Tucson and Casa Grande, rain should dominate with mild overnight temperatures limiting any wintry concern.
In northern Arizona, including Flagstaff, Show Low and the Mogollon Rim, colder air at elevation may support accumulating snow, especially during overnight hours. Travel along Interstate 40 near Flagstaff and State Route 87 could become slushy or snow-covered if heavier bands develop.
Drivers should remain alert for changing conditions in higher terrain and reduced visibility during heavier showers statewide. With temperatures trending above normal in lower elevations, early March will feel mild across much of Arizona’s desert communities.
Additional refinements are expected later this week as the March 1-5 window approaches.
