Phoenix, AZ — As of Saturday, December 20, forecasters are increasingly confident that Arizona will close out 2025 and begin 2026 with unusually warm temperatures, raising the potential for near-record heat across the state, especially in the desert Southwest.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Arizona sits firmly within an above-normal temperature signal for the period from December 27 through January 2, as a strong ridge of high pressure dominates the western and central United States. This pattern suppresses storm systems and allows warmer air to persist well beyond typical late-December levels.
In Phoenix, where average highs in late December typically hover in the upper 60s, daytime temperatures could climb into the mid to upper 70s, with a few locations potentially pushing even warmer. Several days during the post-Christmas to New Year’s window may challenge daily records, particularly under sunny skies and dry conditions. Overnight lows are also expected to remain well above seasonal norms, limiting overnight cooling.
The warmth will not be limited to the Valley. Much of southern and central Arizona, including Tucson and Yuma, is expected to see similar above-average conditions, while even higher elevations trend milder than normal.
Looking beyond New Year’s Day, the January 3–16, 2026 outlook continues to favor above-normal temperatures across Arizona, suggesting the mild pattern may persist into mid-January before any sustained winter cooling arrives. While the warmth may be welcome for travel and outdoor plans, the lack of cold and precipitation raises concerns for long-term drought conditions and mountain snowpack.
For now, Arizona appears poised to greet 2026 more like spring than winter.
