Farmington, New Mexico – A milder late-winter pattern is setting up across the Four Corners region in the Feb. 21–27 window, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures and bringing periodic chances for rain and mountain snow.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico within the Four Corners region fall into a 33% to 50% probability zone for above-normal temperatures during the 8- to 14-day outlook. That points to afternoon highs running several degrees above late-February averages, especially across lower elevations in northwest New Mexico and northeast Arizona.
While the warmer trend reduces the risk of prolonged deep freezes, passing systems could still produce mixed precipitation. In higher elevations near Flagstaff, Durango and Cortez, snow remains possible, particularly overnight when surface temperatures drop. Lower elevations, including Farmington and Page, are more likely to see rain during the day, with brief rain-snow mixes if colder air lingers.
Travelers should stay alert along U.S. 160 and U.S. 550, where elevation changes can quickly shift road conditions from wet to snow-covered. Mountain passes may see slick stretches during overnight periods.
The broader setup favors active weather rather than an extended dry spell. Additional updates from the National Weather Service may refine precipitation timing and mountain snowfall potential as late February approaches.
