Santa Fe, N.M. – Above-average temperatures and uneven rainfall could define the 2025 monsoon season across New Mexico and the broader Southwest, with drought concerns lingering especially in the west and south.
According to the National Weather Service in Albuquerque, the region faces a 60–70% chance of hotter-than-normal conditions from July through September. Meanwhile, precipitation signals remain mixed: central and eastern areas may see normal to slightly above-average rainfall, while the far northeast leans drier.
Monsoon rainfall averages between 3 and 18 inches across New Mexico, with the highest totals in the mountains. However, distribution can vary greatly year to year. Cities like Albuquerque, Clovis, and Gallup could see erratic rainfall patterns, while Las Cruces and Hobbs remain vulnerable to prolonged dry spells. The combination of heat and spotty storms increases the risk for flash flooding, lightning, and wildfires statewide.
Residents are urged to stay hydrated, limit outdoor activity during peak heat, and monitor alerts for sudden storm development. The heat index may climb quickly due to moisture surges tracked via dewpoint monitoring.
Drought persists in much of southern and western New Mexico, a pattern typical before monsoon onset. More updates are expected as storm activity builds later this month.
