Madison, Wisconsin – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 could bring above-normal snowfall across all of Wisconsin, with probabilities estimated at approximately 40 to 50 percent above typical February levels statewide.
According to outlook guidance from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Wisconsin is positioned within a broad corridor of enhanced snowfall potential stretching from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast. The signal indicates an increased likelihood of more frequent snow events during the month rather than a single extreme storm.
Both northern and southern Wisconsin are included in the above-normal snowfall zone. Northern Wisconsin may see more consistent snow coverage due to colder background conditions, while southern and central portions of the state could experience repeated synoptic winter storms capable of producing accumulating snowfall.
CPC monthly outlooks do not provide specific snowfall totals or storm timing. Instead, they evaluate how overall snowfall for the month compares to long-term averages. A 40–50 percent above-normal probability indicates February 2026 is more likely than not to exceed typical snowfall levels across much of the state.
Temperature outlooks for February show near-normal conditions across Wisconsin. This temperature pattern favors snow rather than rain or mixed precipitation during many systems, particularly during overnight hours and periods of stronger cold-air intrusions. Forecasters note that near-average temperatures combined with increased storm frequency often support sustained snow cover and recurring travel impacts.
Neighboring states including Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, and Iowa are also included in the above-normal snowfall zone, reinforcing confidence in a regional winter pattern rather than isolated events.
Commuters, students, and freight operators across Wisconsin are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when outlooks are refined and confidence increases closer to the season.
