Lansing, Michigan – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 could bring above-normal snowfall across all of Michigan, with probabilities estimated at roughly 50 to 60 percent above typical February levels statewide.
According to outlook guidance from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Michigan sits within a broad corridor of enhanced snowfall potential extending from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast. The signal points to an increased likelihood of more frequent or longer-duration snow events throughout the month.
Both the Upper and Lower Peninsulas are included in the above-normal snowfall zone. Areas downwind of Lake Superior, Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, and Lake Erie may see additional enhancement from lake-effect snow layered into larger storm systems, while interior and southern sections of the state remain favored for accumulating snowfall from synoptic winter storms.
CPC monthly outlooks do not provide specific storm dates or snowfall totals. Instead, they assess how total snowfall for the month may compare to long-term averages. A 50–60 percent above-normal probability indicates February 2026 is more likely than not to exceed typical snowfall levels across much of Michigan.
Temperature outlooks for February show near-normal conditions statewide. This temperature pattern supports snow rather than rain or mixed precipitation during many systems, particularly overnight and during periods of stronger cold-air intrusions. Forecasters note that near-average temperatures combined with increased storm frequency often result in persistent snow cover and repeated travel disruptions.
Neighboring states including Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Illinois are also included in the above-normal snowfall zone, reinforcing confidence in a regional winter pattern rather than isolated events.
Commuters, students, and freight operators across Michigan are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when outlooks are refined and confidence increases closer to the season.
