Western New York, NY – Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecasted to impact Western New York this afternoon, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK, issued an alert at 12:30 PM CDT Wednesday, warning of potential severe weather in the region.
According to the NWS, scattered thunderstorms will develop and mature across Western New York, driven by continued heating and low-level moisture advection. This process will enhance instability, peaking around 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, creating favorable conditions for severe weather. The Buffalo Velocity Wind Profile (BUF VWP) indicates around 30 knots of effective shear, which will support the organization of updrafts within the storms. While a severe thunderstorm watch is not imminent, the potential for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail remains high.
Residents are advised to stay informed and prepared as weather conditions may rapidly change. If stronger updrafts consolidate and mature, a small severe thunderstorm watch could be issued later this afternoon or early evening.
