Wichita, Kansas – Kansas is expected to settle into a hotter and more active weather pattern between July 23 and July 27, with above-normal temperatures combining with increasing Gulf moisture to fuel repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The pattern will bring steamy afternoons across much of the state, followed by periodic thunderstorm development capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds and localized flooding.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, in its 6-10 Day Outlook issued July 17, Kansas is favored to experience above-normal temperatures during the July 23-27 period. The state is also included in an area favoring above-normal precipitation, indicating an increased likelihood of more widespread rainfall and thunderstorm activity than is typical for late July.
In Wichita, afternoon temperatures are expected to climb above seasonal averages as warm, humid air spreads north across the central Plains. Heat index values may rise well above the actual air temperature before scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms could produce torrential rainfall, frequent lightning and wind gusts capable of downing tree limbs, while localized flooding may develop in low-lying areas and locations that receive repeated downpours.
Across northeastern Kansas, Overland Park is expected to experience a similar pattern. Above-average temperatures and increasing humidity will create unstable conditions each afternoon, supporting multiple opportunities for thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall could briefly reduce visibility for drivers along Interstates 35, 70 and 435, while localized flooding may occur where storms repeatedly move across the same communities.
The hotter and wetter pattern is expected to extend statewide, including Kansas City, Topeka, Lawrence, Manhattan, Salina, Hutchinson, Dodge City and Garden City. Agricultural areas may benefit from additional moisture during the growing season, although repeated heavy rainfall could temporarily delay field work and create standing water in some locations.
Although the Climate Prediction Center outlook does not pinpoint the exact timing or location of individual thunderstorms, confidence continues to increase that Kansas will remain in a warmer-than-normal and wetter-than-normal pattern through July 27. Residents should stay hydrated during the afternoon heat, keep an eye on changing weather conditions, and monitor National Weather Service forecasts for updated severe thunderstorm watches, warnings and localized flood advisories as the active pattern unfolds.
