New Orleans, Louisiana – A classic midsummer weather pattern is expected to remain locked over Louisiana between July 23 and July 27, bringing above-normal temperatures, oppressive humidity and an increased chance of daily showers and thunderstorms. The combination of tropical moisture and intense daytime heating is expected to produce repeated rounds of afternoon and evening storms capable of heavy rainfall, dangerous lightning and localized flash flooding.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, in its 6-10 Day Outlook issued July 17, Louisiana is favored to experience above-normal temperatures during the July 23-27 period. The state is also included in an area favoring above-normal precipitation, signaling a higher likelihood of widespread rainfall and more frequent thunderstorm activity than is typical for late July.
In New Orleans, temperatures are expected to climb above seasonal averages each afternoon while high humidity pushes heat index values well into dangerous territory. Sea breeze boundaries developing along the Gulf Coast will likely trigger scattered to numerous thunderstorms by the afternoon and early evening. Some storms could produce torrential rainfall, quickly flooding low-lying streets, reducing visibility and creating hazardous travel conditions across the metro area.
Just northwest, Baton Rouge is expected to experience similar conditions, with hot and humid mornings followed by scattered thunderstorms developing as the atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable. Slow-moving storms may produce several inches of rainfall in localized areas, leading to ponding on roads, overflowing drainage systems and isolated flash flooding. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds will also accompany the strongest storms.
The hot and unsettled weather pattern is expected to extend across the state, including Lafayette, Lake Charles, Shreveport, Monroe, Alexandria, Houma and Slidell. While nearly every community will have the opportunity to receive rainfall, storm coverage and rainfall totals will vary considerably from one location to another, a common feature of Louisiana’s summertime weather.
Although the Climate Prediction Center outlook does not pinpoint the exact timing or location of daily thunderstorms, confidence continues to increase that Louisiana will remain in a warmer-than-normal and wetter-than-normal pattern through July 27. Residents should limit strenuous outdoor activity during peak afternoon heat, stay hydrated, and monitor National Weather Service forecasts for localized flood advisories and severe thunderstorm warnings as conditions evolve.
