Tallahassee, Fla. – A tropical disturbance moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico is becoming a feature to watch this weekend as forecasters increase the odds of development and warn that heavy rainfall could bring flooding to parts of the Gulf Coast into early next week.
According to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee and the National Hurricane Center, the disturbance now has a 30% chance of tropical development over the next seven days and a 10% chance of development within the next 48 hours. While it remains too early to determine whether the system will organize into a tropical depression or where it could ultimately move, forecasters say residents along the Gulf Coast should closely monitor future updates.
The greatest concern in the short term is not wind, but heavy rainfall. Periods of tropical downpours are expected to become more widespread across portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast states this weekend and continue into early next week. Repeated rounds of rain could produce localized flash flooding, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Communities across the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend and neighboring Gulf Coast states should review flood safety plans now and remain alert for changing weather conditions. Never drive through flooded roadways, and have multiple ways to receive weather alerts if flood watches or warnings are issued.
Forecasters emphasize that uncertainty remains high regarding the system’s eventual track and strength. The National Hurricane Center will continue issuing tropical outlooks, and additional watches or advisories may become necessary if the disturbance becomes better organized over the coming days.
