San Angelo, TX – Explosive thunderstorm development could begin across west Texas within the next few hours, with forecasters warning that supercells capable of producing baseball-to-softball size hail and tornadoes may develop before evening.
According to the Storm Prediction Center, severe storms are expected to initiate across the western Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley Tuesday afternoon as a strengthening dryline interacts with warm, unstable air across central and west Texas. A Tornado Watch is likely to be issued by late afternoon as storms rapidly intensify.
Initial storm development is expected from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau, with storms quickly evolving into rotating supercells. These storms could produce very large to giant hail ranging from roughly 2.75 to 4.25 inches in diameter, large enough to damage vehicles, roofs and power infrastructure.
Cities including San Angelo, Junction, Sonora and areas across the Concho Valley and western Hill Country face the highest tornado risk into the early evening hours as the low-level jet strengthens and enhances storm rotation.
Farther north toward the Big Country, storms may grow into bowing lines capable of producing wind gusts between 65 and 80 mph.
Residents across west Texas should closely monitor watches and warnings through the evening hours, as a few storms could become long-track supercells capable of producing significant hail and tornado damage before midnight.
