Dallas, TX – Repeated rounds of heavy rain could push creeks and rivers toward flood stage along the Texas–Oklahoma corridor beginning March 7, raising concerns for low-lying communities before St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlook issued February 27 and valid March 7-13, a broad swath of 60-70% probability for above normal precipitation stretches across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A focused heavy rain corridor from March 7-10 places North Texas and southern Oklahoma near an axis of enhanced rainfall potential.
Forecast guidance indicates weekly rainfall totals could exceed 3 inches in parts of the region, with localized amounts approaching 4 inches. Three-day rainfall totals in the highest-risk areas could surpass 2 inches, increasing the likelihood of flash flooding, especially in urban corridors.
In Texas, Dallas, Fort Worth and Sherman could see rapid rises along the Trinity River and tributaries feeding into the Red River basin. In Oklahoma, Oklahoma City, Norman and Ardmore may face rising water along the Canadian and Red rivers as repeated rain bands track across the state line.
Major corridors including I-35, I-40 and U.S. 75 could experience water-covered stretches during heavier downpours. Saturated soils may intensify runoff, particularly in low-water crossings and rural counties near the Red River.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook for March 7-13 shows a 60-70% probability of above normal temperatures across much of Texas and Oklahoma, which could add instability to the pattern.
Flooding could remain possible through March 13, with additional advisories and warnings likely if rainfall totals trend toward the higher end of projections.
