Memphis, TN – Repeated rounds of heavy rain could push rivers toward flood stage along the Arkansas–Tennessee border beginning March 7, raising concerns for communities along the Mississippi River before St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlook issued February 27 and valid March 7-13, a broad swath of 60-70% probability for above normal precipitation stretches across the South-Central and East-Central U.S. A high risk, greater than 60%, for heavy precipitation is centered on the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys from March 7-10, placing eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee in a prime flood corridor.
Forecast guidance indicates weekly rainfall totals could exceed 3 inches across parts of the region, with localized amounts approaching 4 inches. Three-day totals in the highest-risk areas could surpass 2 inches, increasing the likelihood of flash flooding and sharp rises on area rivers.
In Arkansas, Little Rock, West Memphis and communities along the Arkansas and White rivers could see elevated water levels. In Tennessee, Memphis and areas along the Wolf and Mississippi rivers may face increasing flood concerns as repeated rain bands move through.
Major corridors including I-40, I-55 and U.S. 64 could experience water-covered stretches during heavier downpours. Saturated soils may worsen runoff, especially in low-lying Delta communities.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook for March 7-13 also shows a 70-80% probability of above normal temperatures across much of the region, which could enhance instability and maintain the active pattern.
Flooding could remain possible through March 13, with additional river advisories and warnings likely if rainfall totals trend toward the higher end of projections.
