St. Louis, MO – Multiple rounds of heavy rain could push rivers toward flood stage along the Missouri–Kentucky border region beginning March 7, threatening low-lying communities before St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlook issued February 27 and valid March 7-13, a swath of 60-70% probability for above normal precipitation stretches across the South-Central and East-Central U.S. A high risk, greater than 60%, for heavy precipitation is centered on the Lower Ohio, Tennessee, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys from March 7-10, placing portions of Missouri and Kentucky in a prime flood corridor.
Forecast guidance indicates weekly rainfall totals could exceed 3 inches in some areas, with localized amounts approaching 4 inches. Three-day totals in the highest-risk zone could surpass 2 inches, increasing the likelihood of flash flooding and isolated river flooding.
In Missouri, communities near Cape Girardeau and along the Mississippi River could see rising water levels. In Kentucky, Paducah, Owensboro and Louisville sit near the axis of repeated rain bands that could swell the Ohio River and its tributaries.
Major routes including I-64, I-55 and I-24 could see water-covered stretches during heavier downpours. Saturated soils from repeated rainfall may also heighten runoff into smaller creeks and streams.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook for March 7-13 also shows a 70-80% probability of above normal temperatures across much of the region, which could accelerate snowmelt farther north and feed additional runoff into the Ohio and Mississippi River systems.
Flooding could remain possible through at least March 13, with additional advisories and river warnings likely if rainfall totals trend toward the higher end of projections.
