Burlington, VT – A surge of unseasonable warmth could sweep across Vermont within days, rapidly melting snowpack and increasing runoff into rivers before St. Patrick’s Day celebrations arrive.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is an 80-90% probability of above normal temperatures across nearly the entire East Coast, including all of New England. Vermont is firmly inside that high-confidence zone, signaling highs that could run well above early March averages statewide.
In Burlington, where typical early March highs sit in the mid-30s, afternoon temperatures could climb significantly higher. Montpelier, Rutland and St. Albans are also expected to see milder days and warmer overnight lows, accelerating snowmelt across the Champlain Valley and higher terrain in the Green Mountains.
The precipitation outlook reinforces a wetter-than-average stretch. NOAA favors above normal rainfall across much of the Northeast during the March 6-12 window. While the strongest precipitation signals focus on the Great Lakes, Vermont remains in a pattern supportive of repeated rain events.
The combination of elevated temperatures and steady rain could lead to rising rivers, including the Winooski and Lamoille, and minor flooding in low-lying areas. Residents should monitor local river forecasts, clear storm drains and use caution on rural roads where water may pool.
This warm, unsettled pattern is expected to persist through March 12, with updated outlooks likely as confidence increases heading deeper into early March.
