Providence, RI – A surge of unseasonable warmth could push into Rhode Island within days, raising the risk of rapid snowmelt and water pooling on roads well before St. Patrick’s Day festivities begin.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is an 80-90% probability of above normal temperatures across nearly the entire East Coast, including all of New England. Rhode Island sits firmly inside that high-confidence zone, signaling highs that could climb well above early March averages.
In Providence, typical early March highs in the low to mid-40s could be replaced by noticeably milder afternoons. Warwick, Cranston and Pawtucket are also expected to experience warmer days and milder overnight lows, reducing frost concerns but accelerating the melt of any remaining snowpack.
The precipitation outlook reinforces an unsettled stretch. NOAA favors above normal rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic through New England during the same March 6-12 window. While the highest rainfall probabilities center on the Great Lakes, Rhode Island remains in a corridor supportive of repeated rain events.
That combination of elevated temperatures and periodic rain could trigger minor urban flooding, especially in low-lying neighborhoods and along the Pawtuxet and Blackstone rivers. Drivers should watch for standing water during heavier showers and allow extra travel time during the morning commute.
This warm, wet pattern is expected to persist through March 12, with updated outlooks refining rainfall intensity and temperature departures as the timeframe approaches.
