New York, NY – A surge of springlike heat could sweep across the East Coast within days, pushing temperatures well above normal and setting the tone for the first half of March before St. Patrick’s Day arrives.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is an 80-90% probability of above normal temperatures stretching from New England through Florida and westward into Illinois, Tennessee and Mississippi. Nearly every state east of the Mississippi River is favored to run significantly warmer than average, while the Rockies trend cooler by comparison.
For New York and the broader Northeast, that signals highs climbing well beyond early March averages, accelerating snowmelt and increasing the potential for swollen creeks and rivers. The warmth is not isolated. Major metro corridors including Boston, Philadelphia, Washington and Atlanta all fall within the highest probability zone for anomalous heat.
At the same time, the precipitation outlook paints a wet pattern from the East Coast back into the Pacific Northwest and Southwest. The greatest risk for above normal rainfall centers on the Great Lakes, including Michigan, Chicago, northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio. Another corridor of enhanced precipitation stretches from Louisiana and Mississippi through Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, southern Missouri, the Paducah region and into East Texas.
That combination of unseasonable warmth and repeated rain events could lead to localized flooding, especially in low-lying urban areas and along smaller rivers. Residents should monitor local river forecasts and clear storm drains ahead of heavier downpours.
The pattern remains locked in through March 12, with additional updates expected as the window narrows and confidence increases.
