Nashville, Tennessee – A wetter-than-normal spring is shaping up for Tennessee, raising the likelihood of repeated rain events and increasing thunderstorm activity before steady early-summer warmth settles in.
According to NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlook released February 19, Tennessee falls within an above normal precipitation zone for March-April-May 2026. The wetter signal spans much of the lower Midwest and Ohio Valley, favoring multiple storm systems tracking across the state throughout the core of spring.
In Middle Tennessee, including Nashville and Clarksville, March may feature cool, soaking rain events as frontal boundaries stall across the region. While sustained snow risk appears low, brief cold snaps early in the season could allow for minor mixes in northern counties near the Kentucky border. As temperatures moderate through April and May, rainfall becomes more frequent in the form of steady showers and developing thunderstorms.
West Tennessee, including Memphis and Jackson, may experience heavier rain bands at times, especially if storm tracks align along the Mississippi River corridor. That could lead to rising water levels on smaller tributaries and ponding on roadways during stronger systems.
East Tennessee, including Knoxville and Chattanooga, also leans wetter than normal. Upslope flow along the Cumberland Plateau and southern Appalachians may enhance rainfall totals during certain setups.
Overall, Tennessee appears poised for a moisture-heavy, storm-active spring rather than a dry or unusually cool season. Residents should prepare for periodic heavy rain, isolated flooding concerns and increasing thunderstorm potential as the season progresses toward May.
