Albuquerque, New Mexico – A drier late-winter pattern is expected to take hold across New Mexico heading into early March, increasing the probability that both rain and mountain snow totals trend below seasonal averages during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 timeframe.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, much of New Mexico carries a 40% to 50% probability of below-normal precipitation in the Week 3-4 outlook. The drier signal spans the Interstate 25 corridor from Las Cruces through Albuquerque to Santa Fe, west along Interstate 40 toward Gallup, and east toward Clovis and the Texas border.
This extended-range guidance favors a more suppressed Pacific storm track, limiting the frequency of widespread rain and high-elevation snow events compared to late-February norms. While isolated systems remain possible, the broader atmospheric pattern suggests fewer organized moisture-producing systems statewide.
Temperatures during the same period lean near to slightly above average across much of New Mexico, reinforcing a gradual transition toward early-spring conditions without prolonged cold-driven storm cycles.
Communities including Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Las Cruces, Roswell and Farmington fall within this drier signal. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific storm timing or daily precipitation amounts.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March window approaches and shorter-range guidance provides greater clarity on any developing systems.
