Jackson, Mississippi – A drier late-winter pattern is expected to take hold across Mississippi heading into early March, increasing the probability that rainfall totals trend below seasonal averages during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 timeframe.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, much of Mississippi carries a 40% to 50% probability of below-normal precipitation in the Week 3-4 outlook. The drier signal spans the Interstate 55 corridor from Memphis’ southern suburbs through Jackson to McComb, east along Interstate 20 toward Meridian, and south along Interstate 59 and Interstate 10 near the Gulf Coast.
This extended-range guidance favors a suppressed storm track across the Lower Mississippi Valley, limiting the frequency of widespread rain-producing systems compared to late-February norms. While isolated systems remain possible, the broader atmospheric setup suggests fewer organized, soaking rainfall events statewide.
Temperatures during the same period lean near to slightly above average across much of Mississippi, reinforcing a gradual seasonal transition without prolonged cold-driven precipitation episodes.
Communities including Jackson, Gulfport, Hattiesburg, Tupelo and Greenville fall within this drier signal. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific storm timing or daily rainfall totals.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March window approaches and shorter-range guidance provides greater clarity on any developing systems.
