Marquette, Michigan – A stronger spring signal is taking shape across Upper Michigan heading into early March, with confidence increasing that both temperatures and precipitation trend above seasonal averages during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 period.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, the Upper Peninsula carries a 50% to 60% probability of above-normal temperatures in the Week 3-4 outlook. Precipitation probabilities also rise into the 50% to 60% range, indicating a higher likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions across the region.
The warmer and wetter signal stretches along the U.S. 41 corridor from Ironwood through Marquette to Copper Harbor, east along M-28 toward Munising and Newberry, and south along Interstate 75 near the Straits of Mackinac. This broader atmospheric setup favors fewer prolonged Arctic intrusions compared to typical late-February standards across the Upper Peninsula.
The elevated precipitation outlook suggests a more active storm track across the western Great Lakes. While long-range guidance does not specify exact storm timing or precipitation type, it does indicate a greater probability of systems moving through Upper Michigan during the two-week window.
Communities including Marquette, Escanaba, Houghton, Iron Mountain and Sault Ste. Marie fall within both the warmer and wetter zones. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific day-to-day conditions.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March timeframe approaches and shorter-range guidance provides greater clarity on individual systems.
