Little Rock, Arkansas – A stronger spring signal is developing across Arkansas heading into early March, with confidence increasing that both temperatures and precipitation trend above seasonal averages during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 period.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, Arkansas carries a 50% to 60% probability of above-normal temperatures in the Week 3-4 outlook. Precipitation probabilities also rise into the 50% to 60% range, signaling a higher likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions statewide.
The warmer and wetter signal stretches along the Interstate 40 corridor from Fort Smith through Little Rock to West Memphis, south along Interstate 30 toward Texarkana, and north along U.S. 67 and U.S. 412 into northwest Arkansas. This broader atmospheric setup favors fewer prolonged Arctic intrusions compared to typical late-February standards.
The elevated precipitation outlook suggests a more active storm track across the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. While long-range guidance does not specify exact storm timing or precipitation type, it does indicate a greater probability of systems moving through Arkansas during the two-week window.
Major population centers including Little Rock, Fayetteville, Fort Smith, Jonesboro and Pine Bluff fall within both the warmer and wetter zones. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific day-to-day conditions.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March timeframe approaches and shorter-range guidance provides greater clarity on individual systems.
