Nashville, Tennessee – A stronger spring signal is developing across Tennessee heading into early March, with confidence increasing that both temperatures and precipitation trend above seasonal averages during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 period.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, Tennessee carries a 50% to 60% probability of above-normal temperatures in the Week 3-4 outlook. Precipitation probabilities also rise into the 50% to 60% range, signaling a higher likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions statewide.
The warmer and wetter signal stretches along the Interstate 40 corridor from Memphis through Nashville to Knoxville, north-south along Interstate 65 through Middle Tennessee, and east along Interstate 24 and Interstate 75 toward Chattanooga and the Tri-Cities region. This broader atmospheric setup favors fewer prolonged Arctic intrusions compared to typical late-February standards.
The elevated precipitation outlook suggests a more active storm track across the Tennessee Valley and Mid-South. While long-range guidance does not specify exact storm timing or precipitation type, it does indicate a greater probability of systems moving through the state during the two-week window.
Major population centers including Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga and Clarksville fall within both the warmer and wetter zones. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific day-to-day conditions.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March timeframe approaches and shorter-range guidance provides greater clarity on individual systems.
