Indianapolis, Indiana – A stronger spring signal is developing across Indiana heading into early March, with confidence increasing that both temperatures and precipitation trend above seasonal averages during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 period.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, Indiana carries a 50% to 60% probability of above-normal temperatures in the Week 3-4 outlook. Precipitation probabilities also rise into the 50% to 60% range, signaling an increased likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions statewide.
The warmer and wetter signal stretches along the Interstate 65 corridor from Gary through Indianapolis to Louisville, east along Interstate 70 toward Richmond, and north along Interstate 69 through Fort Wayne. This broader atmospheric setup favors fewer prolonged Arctic intrusions compared to typical late-February standards.
The elevated precipitation outlook suggests a more active pattern across the Ohio Valley and central Midwest. While the long-range guidance does not specify exact storm timing or precipitation type, it does point toward a higher probability of systems tracking through Indiana during the two-week window.
Major population centers including Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Evansville, South Bend and Terre Haute fall within both the warmer and wetter zones. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific day-to-day conditions.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March timeframe approaches and shorter-range guidance provides greater clarity on individual systems.
