Phoenix, Arizona – A broader warming trend is expected to expand across Arizona as February transitions into March, increasing the probability that winter’s cooler desert nights and mountain cold become less persistent statewide during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 timeframe.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, Arizona carries a 33% to 50% probability of above-normal temperatures in the Week 3-4 outlook. That warmer signal stretches from the Interstate 10 corridor through Phoenix and Tucson north along Interstate 17 toward Flagstaff and east along Interstate 40 across northern Arizona.
This extended-range guidance favors more seasonable to slightly milder conditions compared to late-February averages. While cooler stretches remain possible across higher elevations in Coconino County and along the Mogollon Rim, the broader atmospheric pattern suggests fewer prolonged cold intrusions dominating the state.
Precipitation probabilities during the same period lean near normal across much of Arizona. No dominant wet or dry anomaly stands out in the long-range outlook, indicating that typical late-winter systems remain possible without a strong signal for excessive rainfall in the deserts or heavy mountain snowfall.
Communities from Yuma and Phoenix to Prescott, Flagstaff and Show Low fall within this gradual transition toward early-spring conditions. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific storm timing or day-to-day weather details.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March window approaches and shorter-range guidance becomes available.
